Texas's 38th Congressional District carries a strong Republican partisan lean of roughly R+21, reflected in its voting history and consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt pursued a Senate bid, and Republican Jon Bonck secured the nomination by winning the May 2026 primary runoff with nearly 65 percent of the vote. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have long dominated general-election outcomes. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in a high probability of a Republican victory while leaving limited room for late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts to alter the trajectory before the November 3, 2026, general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTX-38 House Election Winner
TX-38 House Election Winner
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
5%
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$17,956 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$10,050 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th Congressional District carries a strong Republican partisan lean of roughly R+21, reflected in its voting history and consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt pursued a Senate bid, and Republican Jon Bonck secured the nomination by winning the May 2026 primary runoff with nearly 65 percent of the vote. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have long dominated general-election outcomes. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in a high probability of a Republican victory while leaving limited room for late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts to alter the trajectory before the November 3, 2026, general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,006Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th Congressional District carries a strong Republican partisan lean of roughly R+21, reflected in its voting history and consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt pursued a Senate bid, and Republican Jon Bonck secured the nomination by winning the May 2026 primary runoff with nearly 65 percent of the vote. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have long dominated general-election outcomes. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in a high probability of a Republican victory while leaving limited room for late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts to alter the trajectory before the November 3, 2026, general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,006Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th Congressional District carries a strong Republican partisan lean of roughly R+21, reflected in its voting history and consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The seat opened after incumbent Wesley Hunt pursued a Senate bid, and Republican Jon Bonck secured the nomination by winning the May 2026 primary runoff with nearly 65 percent of the vote. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have long dominated general-election outcomes. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in a high probability of a Republican victory while leaving limited room for late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts to alter the trajectory before the November 3, 2026, general election.
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