California's 38th congressional district, a solidly Democratic seat in Los Angeles County suburbs with a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points, features incumbent Linda Sánchez and multiple Democratic primary challengers including Hilda Solis ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A single Republican candidate, Pedro Casas, is running in a district where Democrats have consistently captured 60 percent or more in recent general elections. The approaching primary and general election on November 3 reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic outcome, as the district's voter registration and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include a late scandal involving leading Democratic candidates or an unforeseen surge in Republican turnout, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural makeup.
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CA-38 House Election Winner
$58,620 Vol.
$58,620 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$58,620 Vol.
$58,620 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$29,182 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$29,438 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district, a solidly Democratic seat in Los Angeles County suburbs with a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points, features incumbent Linda Sánchez and multiple Democratic primary challengers including Hilda Solis ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A single Republican candidate, Pedro Casas, is running in a district where Democrats have consistently captured 60 percent or more in recent general elections. The approaching primary and general election on November 3 reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic outcome, as the district's voter registration and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include a late scandal involving leading Democratic candidates or an unforeseen surge in Republican turnout, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural makeup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$58,620Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district, a solidly Democratic seat in Los Angeles County suburbs with a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points, features incumbent Linda Sánchez and multiple Democratic primary challengers including Hilda Solis ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A single Republican candidate, Pedro Casas, is running in a district where Democrats have consistently captured 60 percent or more in recent general elections. The approaching primary and general election on November 3 reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic outcome, as the district's voter registration and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include a late scandal involving leading Democratic candidates or an unforeseen surge in Republican turnout, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural makeup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,620Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district, a solidly Democratic seat in Los Angeles County suburbs with a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points, features incumbent Linda Sánchez and multiple Democratic primary challengers including Hilda Solis ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A single Republican candidate, Pedro Casas, is running in a district where Democrats have consistently captured 60 percent or more in recent general elections. The approaching primary and general election on November 3 reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic outcome, as the district's voter registration and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include a late scandal involving leading Democratic candidates or an unforeseen surge in Republican turnout, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural makeup.
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