The entrenched US policy against legitimizing forcible territorial changes, backed by longstanding congressional restrictions in defense legislation and the Welles Doctrine framework, drives the near-certain trader view that Washington will not recognize Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory before 2027. Recent US envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, including discussions of trilateral talks, have again identified control over Crimea, Donbas, and other regions as the central impasse, with Ukrainian officials rejecting any such concessions and US statements reaffirming non-recognition of occupied areas. Battlefield dynamics and stalled negotiations since earlier 2026 proposals further limit prospects for a settlement requiring formal US acknowledgment. A decisive shift in frontline control or major policy reversal could still alter the timeline, though structural and domestic barriers make this improbable within the window.