US diplomatic efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have intensified in recent weeks through envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, yet territorial demands remain the core impasse. Russia continues to seek formal acknowledgment of its control over Crimea and occupied portions of Donbas and other regions, while Ukrainian leadership rejects any cession and US statements have emphasized non-recognition of annexed areas under longstanding policy precedents. Congressional restrictions on funding activities that endorse Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory further constrain executive action. With only months remaining before 2027 and no breakthrough in trilateral talks, trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions. A rapid negotiated settlement incorporating explicit recognition or a unilateral policy shift could still alter the outcome before year-end.