Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic engagement, including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 and the strongest military-to-military communications in years. Recent developments include regular senior-level contacts, a February 2026 Trump-Xi call, and mutual interest in managing flashpoints such as Taiwan arms sales and South China Sea gray-zone activities with the Philippines. U.S. attention remains partly diverted by the Iran conflict, while both sides continue economic measures, technology restrictions, and missile testing without crossing into kinetic confrontation. A clash could still arise from miscalculation during naval encounters, abrupt changes to Taiwan policy that derail the summit, or rapid escalation in disputed waters before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
US x China Military clash before 2027?
4% peluang
$207,993 Vol.
$207,993 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% peluang
$207,993 Vol.
$207,993 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic engagement, including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 and the strongest military-to-military communications in years. Recent developments include regular senior-level contacts, a February 2026 Trump-Xi call, and mutual interest in managing flashpoints such as Taiwan arms sales and South China Sea gray-zone activities with the Philippines. U.S. attention remains partly diverted by the Iran conflict, while both sides continue economic measures, technology restrictions, and missile testing without crossing into kinetic confrontation. A clash could still arise from miscalculation during naval encounters, abrupt changes to Taiwan policy that derail the summit, or rapid escalation in disputed waters before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$207,993Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic engagement, including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 and the strongest military-to-military communications in years. Recent developments include regular senior-level contacts, a February 2026 Trump-Xi call, and mutual interest in managing flashpoints such as Taiwan arms sales and South China Sea gray-zone activities with the Philippines. U.S. attention remains partly diverted by the Iran conflict, while both sides continue economic measures, technology restrictions, and missile testing without crossing into kinetic confrontation. A clash could still arise from miscalculation during naval encounters, abrupt changes to Taiwan policy that derail the summit, or rapid escalation in disputed waters before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,093Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.9% implied probability against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic engagement, including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 and the strongest military-to-military communications in years. Recent developments include regular senior-level contacts, a February 2026 Trump-Xi call, and mutual interest in managing flashpoints such as Taiwan arms sales and South China Sea gray-zone activities with the Philippines. U.S. attention remains partly diverted by the Iran conflict, while both sides continue economic measures, technology restrictions, and missile testing without crossing into kinetic confrontation. A clash could still arise from miscalculation during naval encounters, abrupt changes to Taiwan policy that derail the summit, or rapid escalation in disputed waters before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan