Recent FDIC resolutions of two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—reflect routine supervisory actions amid contained commercial real estate pressures rather than systemic stress. With roughly 12 days until the June 30 resolution, trader-implied odds for additional failures remain low, supported by elevated capital ratios at most banks, the $250,000 deposit-insurance ceiling, and the absence of acute liquidity events. Forward-looking risks center on concentrated CRE exposures at regional lenders and any surprise deterioration in credit quality, though Federal Reserve stress-test scenarios and current monetary-policy settings continue to price in orderly conditions through mid-year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$550,075 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Lloyds
1%
BMO
1%
Wells Fargo
1%
RBC
1%
Bank of America
1%
BNY
1%
HSBC
1%
Deutsche Bank
1%
US Bank
1%
Truist
1%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
Scotiabank
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
KeyBank
1%
Morgan Stanley
1%
UBS
<1%
Citigroup
<1%
Goldman Sachs
<1%
Santander
<1%
$550,075 Vol.
Lloyds
$685 Vol.
1%
BMO
$1,712 Vol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$1,076 Vol.
1%
RBC
$476 Vol.
1%
Bank of America
$858 Vol.
1%
BNY
$477 Vol.
1%
HSBC
$41,417 Vol.
1%
Deutsche Bank
$174,067 Vol.
1%
US Bank
$2,007 Vol.
1%
Truist
$690 Vol.
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$150,541 Vol.
1%
Scotiabank
$48,625 Vol.
1%
BNP Paribas
$24,424 Vol.
1%
KeyBank
$1,542 Vol.
1%
Morgan Stanley
$1,631 Vol.
1%
UBS
$39,925 Vol.
<1%
Citigroup
$13,562 Vol.
<1%
Goldman Sachs
$35,067 Vol.
<1%
Santander
$11,293 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FDIC resolutions of two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—reflect routine supervisory actions amid contained commercial real estate pressures rather than systemic stress. With roughly 12 days until the June 30 resolution, trader-implied odds for additional failures remain low, supported by elevated capital ratios at most banks, the $250,000 deposit-insurance ceiling, and the absence of acute liquidity events. Forward-looking risks center on concentrated CRE exposures at regional lenders and any surprise deterioration in credit quality, though Federal Reserve stress-test scenarios and current monetary-policy settings continue to price in orderly conditions through mid-year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$550,075Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FDIC resolutions of two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—reflect routine supervisory actions amid contained commercial real estate pressures rather than systemic stress. With roughly 12 days until the June 30 resolution, trader-implied odds for additional failures remain low, supported by elevated capital ratios at most banks, the $250,000 deposit-insurance ceiling, and the absence of acute liquidity events. Forward-looking risks center on concentrated CRE exposures at regional lenders and any surprise deterioration in credit quality, though Federal Reserve stress-test scenarios and current monetary-policy settings continue to price in orderly conditions through mid-year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$550,075Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent FDIC resolutions of two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—reflect routine supervisory actions amid contained commercial real estate pressures rather than systemic stress. With roughly 12 days until the June 30 resolution, trader-implied odds for additional failures remain low, supported by elevated capital ratios at most banks, the $250,000 deposit-insurance ceiling, and the absence of acute liquidity events. Forward-looking risks center on concentrated CRE exposures at regional lenders and any surprise deterioration in credit quality, though Federal Reserve stress-test scenarios and current monetary-policy settings continue to price in orderly conditions through mid-year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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