**Ongoing regional conflicts, Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian statehood progress, and a compressed timeline through the end of 2026 have shaped trader expectations that no new sovereign country will formally join the Abraham Accords before 2027.** Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 marked the most recent expansion, while efforts to bring in major Arab states have yielded limited movement. Saudi officials have repeatedly conditioned normalization on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure, including recent linkage of a civil nuclear agreement to Accords membership. Syria’s leadership has explicitly ruled out joining, and similar diplomatic hurdles persist with Lebanon and other candidates. With roughly five months remaining and no confirmed breakthroughs or scheduled signings, the 68.1% probability on “No” reflects the consensus that structural obstacles and recent diplomatic patterns outweigh short-term U.S. advocacy for further expansion.