**Apple's efforts to source DRAM from China's CXMT face significant regulatory, capacity, and commercial barriers that underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability of no purchases in 2026.** The company has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Department's Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that pushed contract prices sharply higher and prompted Apple price increases on Macs and iPads. Reports confirm Apple has tested CXMT chips for China-market devices and held early talks, but CXMT—now the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer with ~10-11% global share—operates its fabs at ~95% utilization through 2027, with output largely pre-committed to domestic clients like Xiaomi and Huawei. CXMT recently rejected Apple's push for discounted LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 pricing, aligning instead with Samsung and SK hynix levels. Geopolitical risks, including CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H list and precedent from prior YMTC restrictions, further limit near-term deals despite CXMT's LPDDR6 mass production and openness to global partners. Key watchpoints include any Entity List decisions or policy shifts ahead of year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui22% peluang
$21,728 Vol.
$21,728 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
22% peluang
$21,728 Vol.
$21,728 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Apple's efforts to source DRAM from China's CXMT face significant regulatory, capacity, and commercial barriers that underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability of no purchases in 2026.**
The company has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Department's Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that pushed contract prices sharply higher and prompted Apple price increases on Macs and iPads. Reports confirm Apple has tested CXMT chips for China-market devices and held early talks, but CXMT—now the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer with ~10-11% global share—operates its fabs at ~95% utilization through 2027, with output largely pre-committed to domestic clients like Xiaomi and Huawei. CXMT recently rejected Apple's push for discounted LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 pricing, aligning instead with Samsung and SK hynix levels. Geopolitical risks, including CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H list and precedent from prior YMTC restrictions, further limit near-term deals despite CXMT's LPDDR6 mass production and openness to global partners. Key watchpoints include any Entity List decisions or policy shifts ahead of year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$21,728Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Apple's efforts to source DRAM from China's CXMT face significant regulatory, capacity, and commercial barriers that underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability of no purchases in 2026.**
The company has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Department's Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that pushed contract prices sharply higher and prompted Apple price increases on Macs and iPads. Reports confirm Apple has tested CXMT chips for China-market devices and held early talks, but CXMT—now the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer with ~10-11% global share—operates its fabs at ~95% utilization through 2027, with output largely pre-committed to domestic clients like Xiaomi and Huawei. CXMT recently rejected Apple's push for discounted LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 pricing, aligning instead with Samsung and SK hynix levels. Geopolitical risks, including CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H list and precedent from prior YMTC restrictions, further limit near-term deals despite CXMT's LPDDR6 mass production and openness to global partners. Key watchpoints include any Entity List decisions or policy shifts ahead of year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,728Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Apple's efforts to source DRAM from China's CXMT face significant regulatory, capacity, and commercial barriers that underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability of no purchases in 2026.** The company has lobbied the Trump administration since mid-2026 for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Department's Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that pushed contract prices sharply higher and prompted Apple price increases on Macs and iPads. Reports confirm Apple has tested CXMT chips for China-market devices and held early talks, but CXMT—now the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer with ~10-11% global share—operates its fabs at ~95% utilization through 2027, with output largely pre-committed to domestic clients like Xiaomi and Huawei. CXMT recently rejected Apple's push for discounted LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 pricing, aligning instead with Samsung and SK hynix levels. Geopolitical risks, including CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H list and precedent from prior YMTC restrictions, further limit near-term deals despite CXMT's LPDDR6 mass production and openness to global partners. Key watchpoints include any Entity List decisions or policy shifts ahead of year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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