Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in recent US-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. A provisional leadership council has formed amid internal rifts, but IRGC loyalty and repressive capacity have contained nationwide protests sparked by economic freefall—inflation exceeding 40%, rial collapse, and sanctions—preventing mass defections or coordinated uprisings. A fragile ceasefire holds as of mid-April, with US demands in ongoing talks including uranium handover and missile limits, yet no escalation signals imminent regime change before the deadline. Absent sudden triggers like leadership fractures or Hormuz blockade intensification, structural resilience favors continuity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiApakah rezim Iran akan jatuh pada 30 Juni?
Apakah rezim Iran akan jatuh pada 30 Juni?
Ya
$31,557,306 Vol.
$31,557,306 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ya
$31,557,306 Vol.
$31,557,306 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in recent US-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. A provisional leadership council has formed amid internal rifts, but IRGC loyalty and repressive capacity have contained nationwide protests sparked by economic freefall—inflation exceeding 40%, rial collapse, and sanctions—preventing mass defections or coordinated uprisings. A fragile ceasefire holds as of mid-April, with US demands in ongoing talks including uranium handover and missile limits, yet no escalation signals imminent regime change before the deadline. Absent sudden triggers like leadership fractures or Hormuz blockade intensification, structural resilience favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$31,557,306Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in recent US-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. A provisional leadership council has formed amid internal rifts, but IRGC loyalty and repressive capacity have contained nationwide protests sparked by economic freefall—inflation exceeding 40%, rial collapse, and sanctions—preventing mass defections or coordinated uprisings. A fragile ceasefire holds as of mid-April, with US demands in ongoing talks including uranium handover and missile limits, yet no escalation signals imminent regime change before the deadline. Absent sudden triggers like leadership fractures or Hormuz blockade intensification, structural resilience favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,557,306Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in recent US-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. A provisional leadership council has formed amid internal rifts, but IRGC loyalty and repressive capacity have contained nationwide protests sparked by economic freefall—inflation exceeding 40%, rial collapse, and sanctions—preventing mass defections or coordinated uprisings. A fragile ceasefire holds as of mid-April, with US demands in ongoing talks including uranium handover and missile limits, yet no escalation signals imminent regime change before the deadline. Absent sudden triggers like leadership fractures or Hormuz blockade intensification, structural resilience favors continuity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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