Lockheed Martin's current ~$133 billion market capitalization, supported by $75 billion-plus trailing revenue and steady defense prime margins, underpins the 68% implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Anduril on December 31, 2026. Anduril's May 2026 Series H priced it at $61 billion on $2.2 billion 2025 revenue (~28x multiple), with secondary marks and July talks pointing to $95–113 billion levels, yet the absolute gap remains wide given Anduril's smaller scale and unresolved funding. Traders price in Lockheed's stable cash flows and modest growth against Anduril's rapid expansion and high-multiple uncertainty, with limited near-term IPO catalysts expected to close the differential by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnduril
40% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 gen 2027
Anduril
40% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 gen 2027
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Lockheed Martin's current ~$133 billion market capitalization, supported by $75 billion-plus trailing revenue and steady defense prime margins, underpins the 68% implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Anduril on December 31, 2026. Anduril's May 2026 Series H priced it at $61 billion on $2.2 billion 2025 revenue (~28x multiple), with secondary marks and July talks pointing to $95–113 billion levels, yet the absolute gap remains wide given Anduril's smaller scale and unresolved funding. Traders price in Lockheed's stable cash flows and modest growth against Anduril's rapid expansion and high-multiple uncertainty, with limited near-term IPO catalysts expected to close the differential by year-end.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Mercato aperto: May 19, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Volume
$4,763Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Lockheed Martin's current ~$133 billion market capitalization, supported by $75 billion-plus trailing revenue and steady defense prime margins, underpins the 68% implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Anduril on December 31, 2026. Anduril's May 2026 Series H priced it at $61 billion on $2.2 billion 2025 revenue (~28x multiple), with secondary marks and July talks pointing to $95–113 billion levels, yet the absolute gap remains wide given Anduril's smaller scale and unresolved funding. Traders price in Lockheed's stable cash flows and modest growth against Anduril's rapid expansion and high-multiple uncertainty, with limited near-term IPO catalysts expected to close the differential by year-end.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$4,763Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lockheed Martin's current ~$133 billion market capitalization, supported by $75 billion-plus trailing revenue and steady defense prime margins, underpins the 68% implied probability it will hold a higher valuation than Anduril on December 31, 2026. Anduril's May 2026 Series H priced it at $61 billion on $2.2 billion 2025 revenue (~28x multiple), with secondary marks and July talks pointing to $95–113 billion levels, yet the absolute gap remains wide given Anduril's smaller scale and unresolved funding. Traders price in Lockheed's stable cash flows and modest growth against Anduril's rapid expansion and high-multiple uncertainty, with limited near-term IPO catalysts expected to close the differential by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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