Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
$48,496 Vol.
$48,496 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$48,496 Vol.
$48,496 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$48,496Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48,496Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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