Skip to main content
Market icon

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

Market icon

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

>99% probabilità
Polymarket

$6,490 Vol.

>99% probabilità
Polymarket

$6,490 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one EU nation's sovereign credit rating will be downgraded before 2027, driven by multiple confirmed actions already within the timeframe: Fitch downgraded France to 'A+' from 'AA-' on September 12, 2025, citing fiscal deterioration and political fragmentation; S&P followed with a cut to 'A+' on October 17, 2025; earlier in summer 2025, Fitch also lowered ratings for Finland, Austria, and Belgium due to high deficits and debt exceeding EU fiscal rules. These developments amid subdued growth, geopolitical strains, and coalition instability have solidified the Yes outcome, with traders pricing only minuscule risks like unprecedented agency reversals or narrow resolution disputes over rating definitions. Upcoming agency reviews in 2026 could prompt further shifts but are unlikely to retroactively alter the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,490
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Esito proposto: Yes

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one EU nation's sovereign credit rating will be downgraded before 2027, driven by multiple confirmed actions already within the timeframe: Fitch downgraded France to 'A+' from 'AA-' on September 12, 2025, citing fiscal deterioration and political fragmentation; S&P followed with a cut to 'A+' on October 17, 2025; earlier in summer 2025, Fitch also lowered ratings for Finland, Austria, and Belgium due to high deficits and debt exceeding EU fiscal rules. These developments amid subdued growth, geopolitical strains, and coalition instability have solidified the Yes outcome, with traders pricing only minuscule risks like unprecedented agency reversals or narrow resolution disputes over rating definitions. Upcoming agency reviews in 2026 could prompt further shifts but are unlikely to retroactively alter the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,490
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Esito proposto: Yes

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: Yes

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 100% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 100¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jan 6, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" è 100% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 100% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.