Skip to main content
Market icon
Geopolitica·Stretto Di Hormuz

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Stretto Di Hormuz

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

10% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
10% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research. Citrini Research's Analyst #3 completed a high-risk field trip to Oman's Musandam Peninsula overlooking the Strait of Hormuz early April 2026, documenting ship traffic amid Iran-US tensions and local expectations of potential US ground operations, as detailed in the firm's viral April 5 report. Facing border agents, intelligence questioning, and coast guard encounters, the analyst returned safely, prompting widespread media coverage and trader memes about his exploits. With no official announcements or updates from Citrini confirming a subsequent Middle East entry by mid-April 16, traders reflect 90% consensus against a return before April 30 resolution, citing elevated risks in the chokepoint waterway amid ongoing regional escalation signals. A late confirmation could shift odds, but caution prevails.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Volume
$1,771
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research. Citrini Research's Analyst #3 completed a high-risk field trip to Oman's Musandam Peninsula overlooking the Strait of Hormuz early April 2026, documenting ship traffic amid Iran-US tensions and local expectations of potential US ground operations, as detailed in the firm's viral April 5 report. Facing border agents, intelligence questioning, and coast guard encounters, the analyst returned safely, prompting widespread media coverage and trader memes about his exploits. With no official announcements or updates from Citrini confirming a subsequent Middle East entry by mid-April 16, traders reflect 90% consensus against a return before April 30 resolution, citing elevated risks in the chokepoint waterway amid ongoing regional escalation signals. A late confirmation could shift odds, but caution prevails.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Volume
$1,771
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 10% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 10¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 10% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 8, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" è 10% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 10% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.