Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since March 2025 as the lead defendant in a sprawling Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality corruption case involving 414 people and charges including leading a criminal organization, bribery, bid-rigging, and related offenses. The trial opened in March 2026 at the Silivri prison complex; while dozens of co-defendants have been released in periodic custody reviews—including several district mayors in July 2026—İmamoğlu’s detention has been consistently extended, most recently after hearings in July and August. The second hearing block resumed in mid-August 2026 without İmamoğlu yet completing his full defense, and the court has set further sessions into the fall with no verdict expected before late 2026 or beyond. Traders’ 94.5% probability on “No” reflects the scale and pace of proceedings, the prosecution’s request for sentences exceeding 2,000 years, and the absence of any bail, acquittal, or political development that would trigger release before year-end.