Strong labor market conditions and inflation readings above the Federal Reserve's 2% target have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the October FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases have reinforced expectations for policy caution, boosting the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 26.5% as a hedge against persistent price pressures. Minimal probabilities on cuts highlight limited recession signals in current data, while upcoming September employment and inflation reports plus any interim central bank communications represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed in ottobre?
Decisione della Fed in ottobre?
Nessun cambiamento 71%
Aumento di 25 punti base 27%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.2%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$1,002,543 Vol.
$1,002,543 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
3%
Nessun cambiamento
71%
Aumento di 25 punti base
27%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 71%
Aumento di 25 punti base 27%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.2%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$1,002,543 Vol.
$1,002,543 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$172,178 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$355,284 Vol.
3%
Nessun cambiamento
$180,059 Vol.
71%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$178,036 Vol.
27%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$116,985 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong labor market conditions and inflation readings above the Federal Reserve's 2% target have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the October FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases have reinforced expectations for policy caution, boosting the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 26.5% as a hedge against persistent price pressures. Minimal probabilities on cuts highlight limited recession signals in current data, while upcoming September employment and inflation reports plus any interim central bank communications represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,002,543Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong labor market conditions and inflation readings above the Federal Reserve's 2% target have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the October FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases have reinforced expectations for policy caution, boosting the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 26.5% as a hedge against persistent price pressures. Minimal probabilities on cuts highlight limited recession signals in current data, while upcoming September employment and inflation reports plus any interim central bank communications represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,002,543Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Strong labor market conditions and inflation readings above the Federal Reserve's 2% target have anchored trader consensus around no change in the federal funds rate at the October FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases have reinforced expectations for policy caution, boosting the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 26.5% as a hedge against persistent price pressures. Minimal probabilities on cuts highlight limited recession signals in current data, while upcoming September employment and inflation reports plus any interim central bank communications represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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