Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, driven by the absence of recent high-risk civil disobedience or legal escalations in the past 30 days. Her last notable detention occurred in December 2025 during a London pro-Palestinian demonstration supporting hunger-striking activists, from which she was promptly released without reported charges or trials materializing. Since mid-March 2026, Thunberg has focused on verbal critiques, such as condemning U.S. threats toward Iran on April 8, rather than disruptive protests that previously led to brief police interventions. No scheduled demonstrations, flotilla voyages, or court dates loom before the deadline, underscoring structural barriers to an arrest amid her shift toward online advocacy. Late-breaking activism could shift odds, but current calm favors non-occurrence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$66,225 Vol.
$66,225 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$66,225 Vol.
$66,225 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, driven by the absence of recent high-risk civil disobedience or legal escalations in the past 30 days. Her last notable detention occurred in December 2025 during a London pro-Palestinian demonstration supporting hunger-striking activists, from which she was promptly released without reported charges or trials materializing. Since mid-March 2026, Thunberg has focused on verbal critiques, such as condemning U.S. threats toward Iran on April 8, rather than disruptive protests that previously led to brief police interventions. No scheduled demonstrations, flotilla voyages, or court dates loom before the deadline, underscoring structural barriers to an arrest amid her shift toward online advocacy. Late-breaking activism could shift odds, but current calm favors non-occurrence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 12, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Volume
$66,225Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, driven by the absence of recent high-risk civil disobedience or legal escalations in the past 30 days. Her last notable detention occurred in December 2025 during a London pro-Palestinian demonstration supporting hunger-striking activists, from which she was promptly released without reported charges or trials materializing. Since mid-March 2026, Thunberg has focused on verbal critiques, such as condemning U.S. threats toward Iran on April 8, rather than disruptive protests that previously led to brief police interventions. No scheduled demonstrations, flotilla voyages, or court dates loom before the deadline, underscoring structural barriers to an arrest amid her shift toward online advocacy. Late-breaking activism could shift odds, but current calm favors non-occurrence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$66,225Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64.5% implied probability against Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, driven by the absence of recent high-risk civil disobedience or legal escalations in the past 30 days. Her last notable detention occurred in December 2025 during a London pro-Palestinian demonstration supporting hunger-striking activists, from which she was promptly released without reported charges or trials materializing. Since mid-March 2026, Thunberg has focused on verbal critiques, such as condemning U.S. threats toward Iran on April 8, rather than disruptive protests that previously led to brief police interventions. No scheduled demonstrations, flotilla voyages, or court dates loom before the deadline, underscoring structural barriers to an arrest amid her shift toward online advocacy. Late-breaking activism could shift odds, but current calm favors non-occurrence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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