Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$72,971 Vol.
$72,971 Vol.
10 mag 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$72,971 Vol.
$72,971 Vol.
10 mag 2026
26°C or below
$5,498 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,957 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,923 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,682 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,962 Vol.
No
31°C
$14,600 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$7,389 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,827 Vol.
No
34°C
$5,808 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,897 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$3,429 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$72,971Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$72,971Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature at exactly 31°C on May 10, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peak daytime highs of 31°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport under overcast skies and light winds that cap solar heating. This reflects a sharp rebound from May 8's rainy 24°C high amid building upper-air ridging over the Sichuan Basin, exceeding the early-May subtropical monsoon climatology of 27°C averages. While model uncertainty remains, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for greater insolation or southerly wind shifts boosting advection; final CMA hourly data through midnight UTC will resolve the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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