Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 16 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 16 agosto?
34°C 42%
35°C 37%
36°C 11%
33°C 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
8%
34°C
42%
35°C
37%
36°C
11%
37°C or higher
2%
34°C 42%
35°C 37%
36°C 11%
33°C 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
27°C or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$141 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$29 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$69 Vol.
3%
33°C
$269 Vol.
8%
34°C
$619 Vol.
42%
35°C
$2,049 Vol.
37%
36°C
$358 Vol.
11%
37°C or higher
$97 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,085Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,085Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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