Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 12?
18°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
$206,736 Vol.
$206,736 Vol.
12 mag 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
$206,736 Vol.
$206,736 Vol.
12 mag 2026
16°C or below
$12,551 Vol.
No
17°C
$68,532 Vol.
No
18°C
$21,298 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$15,835 Vol.
No
20°C
$19,801 Vol.
No
21°C
$26,527 Vol.
No
22°C
$9,987 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,739 Vol.
No
24°C
$9,829 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,891 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$7,747 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 10, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$206,736Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$206,736Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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