Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 21?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$76,136 Vol.
$76,136 Vol.
21 mag 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$76,136 Vol.
$76,136 Vol.
21 mag 2026
26°C or below
$2,947 Vol.
No
27°C
$918 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,154 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,706 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,739 Vol.
No
31°C
$14,224 Vol.
No
32°C
$14,025 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$10,621 Vol.
No
34°C
$7,512 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,928 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$3,364 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 19, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$76,136Data di fine
21 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 12:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$76,136Data di fine
21 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 12:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s State Meteorological Agency converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C in Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge that advects warmer air northward from North Africa. Stable subsidence and light winds limit convective mixing, keeping temperature variability low and supporting the near-certain market-implied outcome. Official guidance through the afternoon shows minimal risk of exceeding this threshold, though any late-day shift in the ridge axis or localized urban heat-island effects could still allow a reading of 33°C. Updated model runs later today will provide the final confirmation before the market resolves.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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