**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%. **Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Paris on July 2?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 2?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$214,583 Vol.
$214,583 Vol.
2 lug 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$214,583 Vol.
$214,583 Vol.
2 lug 2026
21°C or below
$13,668 Vol.
No
22°C
$19,874 Vol.
No
23°C
$17,719 Vol.
No
24°C
$27,081 Vol.
No
25°C
$59,302 Vol.
No
26°C
$31,652 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$17,330 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,109 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,800 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,884 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$6,163 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%.
**Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
Volume
$214,583Data di fine
2 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:01 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%.
**Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$214,583Data di fine
2 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:01 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%. **Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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