Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 Vol.
$136,768 Vol.
30 apr 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 Vol.
$136,768 Vol.
30 apr 2026
11°C or below
$2,284 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,918 Vol.
No
13°C
$14,289 Vol.
No
14°C
$29,558 Vol.
No
15°C
$15,355 Vol.
No
16°C
$16,848 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$16,899 Vol.
No
18°C
$14,025 Vol.
No
19°C
$9,406 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,826 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$8,360 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Volume
$136,768Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$136,768Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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