Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend due to disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and dismantlement of facilities alongside export of over 400kg of highly enriched uranium stockpile, while Iran countered with five years and controlled reduction. Despite the impasse, traders price a 67% yes probability by December 31 as implied consensus on resumed diplomacy amid Iran's weakened position following February US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, IAEA non-compliance findings, and economic pressures from sanctions and protests. Russia’s renewed offer to remove Iran’s stockpile adds a potential bridge, with a second negotiation round under consideration before JCPOA snapback deadlines tighten.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$62,968 Vol.
$62,968 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$62,968 Vol.
$62,968 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend due to disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and dismantlement of facilities alongside export of over 400kg of highly enriched uranium stockpile, while Iran countered with five years and controlled reduction. Despite the impasse, traders price a 67% yes probability by December 31 as implied consensus on resumed diplomacy amid Iran's weakened position following February US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, IAEA non-compliance findings, and economic pressures from sanctions and protests. Russia’s renewed offer to remove Iran’s stockpile adds a potential bridge, with a second negotiation round under consideration before JCPOA snapback deadlines tighten.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$62,968Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend due to disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and dismantlement of facilities alongside export of over 400kg of highly enriched uranium stockpile, while Iran countered with five years and controlled reduction. Despite the impasse, traders price a 67% yes probability by December 31 as implied consensus on resumed diplomacy amid Iran's weakened position following February US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, IAEA non-compliance findings, and economic pressures from sanctions and protests. Russia’s renewed offer to remove Iran’s stockpile adds a potential bridge, with a second negotiation round under consideration before JCPOA snapback deadlines tighten.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,968Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend due to disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and dismantlement of facilities alongside export of over 400kg of highly enriched uranium stockpile, while Iran countered with five years and controlled reduction. Despite the impasse, traders price a 67% yes probability by December 31 as implied consensus on resumed diplomacy amid Iran's weakened position following February US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, IAEA non-compliance findings, and economic pressures from sanctions and protests. Russia’s renewed offer to remove Iran’s stockpile adds a potential bridge, with a second negotiation round under consideration before JCPOA snapback deadlines tighten.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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