Recent indirect US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without a deal over the weekend, but mediators and White House officials reported significant progress, with a new round expected imminently amid Pakistan's mediation push. The Trump administration proposed a 20-year suspension of Iranian uranium enrichment—short of a permanent ban—in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, concessions Iran has signaled openness to via counteroffers through Oman. Vice President JD Vance noted Iran's reluctance to fully accept terms, yet President Trump described the war as "close to over" and emphasized Tehran's desire for agreement. Economic pressures from the US naval blockade have accelerated diplomacy since early 2026 rounds, driving trader consensus to 70.5% implied probability for a nuclear accord before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$628,183 Vol.
$628,183 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$628,183 Vol.
$628,183 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent indirect US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without a deal over the weekend, but mediators and White House officials reported significant progress, with a new round expected imminently amid Pakistan's mediation push. The Trump administration proposed a 20-year suspension of Iranian uranium enrichment—short of a permanent ban—in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, concessions Iran has signaled openness to via counteroffers through Oman. Vice President JD Vance noted Iran's reluctance to fully accept terms, yet President Trump described the war as "close to over" and emphasized Tehran's desire for agreement. Economic pressures from the US naval blockade have accelerated diplomacy since early 2026 rounds, driving trader consensus to 70.5% implied probability for a nuclear accord before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$628,183Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent indirect US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without a deal over the weekend, but mediators and White House officials reported significant progress, with a new round expected imminently amid Pakistan's mediation push. The Trump administration proposed a 20-year suspension of Iranian uranium enrichment—short of a permanent ban—in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, concessions Iran has signaled openness to via counteroffers through Oman. Vice President JD Vance noted Iran's reluctance to fully accept terms, yet President Trump described the war as "close to over" and emphasized Tehran's desire for agreement. Economic pressures from the US naval blockade have accelerated diplomacy since early 2026 rounds, driving trader consensus to 70.5% implied probability for a nuclear accord before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$628,230Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent indirect US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without a deal over the weekend, but mediators and White House officials reported significant progress, with a new round expected imminently amid Pakistan's mediation push. The Trump administration proposed a 20-year suspension of Iranian uranium enrichment—short of a permanent ban—in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, concessions Iran has signaled openness to via counteroffers through Oman. Vice President JD Vance noted Iran's reluctance to fully accept terms, yet President Trump described the war as "close to over" and emphasized Tehran's desire for agreement. Economic pressures from the US naval blockade have accelerated diplomacy since early 2026 rounds, driving trader consensus to 70.5% implied probability for a nuclear accord before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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