**Forecast models indicate a mild overnight minimum for Munich on September 20, 2026, likely in the 11–13°C range under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds.** This places the greatest market-implied probability near 9–10°C, reflecting trader focus on how much radiative cooling occurs overnight after a daytime high near 23–24°C. Key variables include cloud cover thickness (which limits heat loss), dew points around 10–12°C that cap how far temperatures can fall, and wind speeds near 5–10 km/h that mix the boundary layer. Ensemble spreads in global models create the tight clustering of probabilities from 8–11°C, as small shifts in timing or coverage could push the daily low a degree or two either way. Historical September averages near 9.5°C provide context, but current mild Atlantic air and lack of strong high pressure suggest limited downside risk below 8°C. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 12–24 hours will be the main catalysts for any repricing.