**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 25, 2026, aligning with the leading 57.5% market-implied odds.** Persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer are expected to moderate overnight cooling, producing typical late-September coastal conditions with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. This matches climatological baselines for the period, when average minima hover around 55–60°F. The 41.9% probability on 68°F or higher reflects limited upside potential if offshore influences briefly strengthen, while lower bins like 49°F or below (33.5%) remain less favored absent a stronger cold push. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble runs, with resolution hinging on official San Francisco Airport observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a San Francisco il 25 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a San Francisco il 25 settembre?
68°F o superiore 79.3%
49°F o inferiore 61%
58-59°F 57%
66-67°F 38.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 set 2026
49°F o inferiore
61%
50-51°F
38%
52-53°F
12%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
15%
58-59°F
57%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
37%
66-67°F
39%
68°F o superiore
79%
68°F o superiore 79.3%
49°F o inferiore 61%
58-59°F 57%
66-67°F 38.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 set 2026
49°F o inferiore
$10 Vol.
61%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
38%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
12%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
12%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
15%
58-59°F
$77 Vol.
57%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
26%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
37%
66-67°F
$25 Vol.
39%
68°F o superiore
$25 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 25, 2026, aligning with the leading 57.5% market-implied odds.** Persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer are expected to moderate overnight cooling, producing typical late-September coastal conditions with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. This matches climatological baselines for the period, when average minima hover around 55–60°F. The 41.9% probability on 68°F or higher reflects limited upside potential if offshore influences briefly strengthen, while lower bins like 49°F or below (33.5%) remain less favored absent a stronger cold push. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble runs, with resolution hinging on official San Francisco Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$157Data di fine
25 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 25, 2026, aligning with the leading 57.5% market-implied odds.** Persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer are expected to moderate overnight cooling, producing typical late-September coastal conditions with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. This matches climatological baselines for the period, when average minima hover around 55–60°F. The 41.9% probability on 68°F or higher reflects limited upside potential if offshore influences briefly strengthen, while lower bins like 49°F or below (33.5%) remain less favored absent a stronger cold push. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble runs, with resolution hinging on official San Francisco Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$157Data di fine
25 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 25, 2026, aligning with the leading 57.5% market-implied odds.** Persistent onshore flow and a compressed marine layer are expected to moderate overnight cooling, producing typical late-September coastal conditions with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. This matches climatological baselines for the period, when average minima hover around 55–60°F. The 41.9% probability on 68°F or higher reflects limited upside potential if offshore influences briefly strengthen, while lower bins like 49°F or below (33.5%) remain less favored absent a stronger cold push. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble runs, with resolution hinging on official San Francisco Airport observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti