**The 93.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 reflects the bill’s repeated House passage followed by consistent Senate gridlock.** Versions of the legislation, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID at polls, cleared the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 by narrow margins (218-213 on the later vote). However, the measure has remained stalled in the Senate, where it lacks the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster despite Republican control of 53 seats. Recent developments reinforce trader expectations of non-passage this year. Senate consideration in March 2026 produced no breakthrough, with at least one Republican opposing cloture and Democrats uniformly opposed. July 2026 attempts to embed SAVE Act provisions in the NDAA or other must-pass vehicles were rejected by the Senate, while budget-reconciliation alternatives discussed in the House budget resolution remain in early stages with uncertain timelines and no enacted framework. These procedural and vote-shortage barriers, absent a sudden shift in Senate dynamics before year-end, keep the probability of enactment in 2026 low.