Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Donald Trump mentioning Senate Majority Leader Schumer (83% implied probability) and German CDU figures Friedrich/Merz (71%) by April 30, driven by his frequent Truth Social attacks on Democratic obstruction during ongoing Senate confirmation hearings for cabinet nominees like the Federal Reserve chair, whose hearing is scheduled next week. Recent speculation around potential Supreme Court retirements by Justices Alito or Thomas, raised in Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview where he affirmed readiness to nominate replacements, underscores his pattern of naming political adversaries amid legislative gridlock. No such mentions have occurred since April 1, leaving two weeks for speeches, rallies, or posts to sway outcomes in this multi-option market tracking any public reference.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$86,231 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Friedrich / Merz
72%
Homan
61%
Hillary
56%
Gianni / Infantino
36%
Bernie
54%
Delcy
52%
Massie
64%
Paxton
48%
Schumer
45%
Machado
45%
Warren / Pocahontas
43%
Oz
42%
Talarico
38%
Nicki / Minaj
18%
Bolsonaro
8%
Rand Paul
44%
Zohran / Mamdani
43%
Kavanaugh
42%
Leavitt
40%
Jensen / Huang
46%
Elon / Musk
41%
$86,231 Vol.
Friedrich / Merz
$56 Vol.
72%
Homan
$625 Vol.
61%
Hillary
$84 Vol.
56%
Gianni / Infantino
$707 Vol.
36%
Bernie
$0 Vol.
54%
Delcy
$143 Vol.
52%
Massie
$285 Vol.
64%
Paxton
$0 Vol.
48%
Schumer
$31 Vol.
45%
Machado
$0 Vol.
45%
Warren / Pocahontas
$120 Vol.
43%
Oz
$0 Vol.
42%
Talarico
$8 Vol.
38%
Nicki / Minaj
$53 Vol.
18%
Bolsonaro
$471 Vol.
8%
Rand Paul
$664 Vol.
44%
Zohran / Mamdani
$52 Vol.
43%
Kavanaugh
$4 Vol.
42%
Leavitt
$93 Vol.
40%
Jensen / Huang
$43 Vol.
46%
Elon / Musk
$40 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Donald Trump mentioning Senate Majority Leader Schumer (83% implied probability) and German CDU figures Friedrich/Merz (71%) by April 30, driven by his frequent Truth Social attacks on Democratic obstruction during ongoing Senate confirmation hearings for cabinet nominees like the Federal Reserve chair, whose hearing is scheduled next week. Recent speculation around potential Supreme Court retirements by Justices Alito or Thomas, raised in Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview where he affirmed readiness to nominate replacements, underscores his pattern of naming political adversaries amid legislative gridlock. No such mentions have occurred since April 1, leaving two weeks for speeches, rallies, or posts to sway outcomes in this multi-option market tracking any public reference.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Mercato aperto: Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$86,231Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Donald Trump mentioning Senate Majority Leader Schumer (83% implied probability) and German CDU figures Friedrich/Merz (71%) by April 30, driven by his frequent Truth Social attacks on Democratic obstruction during ongoing Senate confirmation hearings for cabinet nominees like the Federal Reserve chair, whose hearing is scheduled next week. Recent speculation around potential Supreme Court retirements by Justices Alito or Thomas, raised in Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview where he affirmed readiness to nominate replacements, underscores his pattern of naming political adversaries amid legislative gridlock. No such mentions have occurred since April 1, leaving two weeks for speeches, rallies, or posts to sway outcomes in this multi-option market tracking any public reference.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$86,231Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Donald Trump mentioning Senate Majority Leader Schumer (83% implied probability) and German CDU figures Friedrich/Merz (71%) by April 30, driven by his frequent Truth Social attacks on Democratic obstruction during ongoing Senate confirmation hearings for cabinet nominees like the Federal Reserve chair, whose hearing is scheduled next week. Recent speculation around potential Supreme Court retirements by Justices Alito or Thomas, raised in Trump's April 15 Fox Business interview where he affirmed readiness to nominate replacements, underscores his pattern of naming political adversaries amid legislative gridlock. No such mentions have occurred since April 1, leaving two weeks for speeches, rallies, or posts to sway outcomes in this multi-option market tracking any public reference.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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