Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers fast-tracked a bill proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing failed protections and international bullying. However, no formal action has followed as of mid-April, with IAEA safeguards reports still applying and parliament mulling rather than approving the measure. Traders price "No" at 81.5% reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without following through—plus strategic costs like intensified UN sanctions, loss of diplomatic leverage in stalled US-Iran talks, and isolation akin to North Korea. Ongoing war de-escalation signals and national interest assessments further anchor trader consensus against pre-2027 withdrawal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
$109,026 Vol.
$109,026 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$109,026 Vol.
$109,026 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers fast-tracked a bill proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing failed protections and international bullying. However, no formal action has followed as of mid-April, with IAEA safeguards reports still applying and parliament mulling rather than approving the measure. Traders price "No" at 81.5% reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without following through—plus strategic costs like intensified UN sanctions, loss of diplomatic leverage in stalled US-Iran talks, and isolation akin to North Korea. Ongoing war de-escalation signals and national interest assessments further anchor trader consensus against pre-2027 withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$109,026Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers fast-tracked a bill proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing failed protections and international bullying. However, no formal action has followed as of mid-April, with IAEA safeguards reports still applying and parliament mulling rather than approving the measure. Traders price "No" at 81.5% reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without following through—plus strategic costs like intensified UN sanctions, loss of diplomatic leverage in stalled US-Iran talks, and isolation akin to North Korea. Ongoing war de-escalation signals and national interest assessments further anchor trader consensus against pre-2027 withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$109,026Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers fast-tracked a bill proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing failed protections and international bullying. However, no formal action has followed as of mid-April, with IAEA safeguards reports still applying and parliament mulling rather than approving the measure. Traders price "No" at 81.5% reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without following through—plus strategic costs like intensified UN sanctions, loss of diplomatic leverage in stalled US-Iran talks, and isolation akin to North Korea. Ongoing war de-escalation signals and national interest assessments further anchor trader consensus against pre-2027 withdrawal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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