Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against President Trump issuing a pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026, driven by over 15 months of White House inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her legal team's persistent appeals. In February 2026, Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment during a House Judiciary deposition but offered testimony clearing Trump of Epstein-related wrongdoing in exchange for clemency, prompting an explicit White House denial that no such consideration was underway. Her appeals exhausted after Supreme Court rejection in October 2025, Senate resolutions opposing leniency, and victim family pleas amplify political risks, as Trump's pardons have targeted January 6 defendants, anti-abortion activists, and financial offenders instead. Late-term shifts remain possible amid ongoing Epstein file releases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$539,331 Vol.
$539,331 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$539,331 Vol.
$539,331 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against President Trump issuing a pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026, driven by over 15 months of White House inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her legal team's persistent appeals. In February 2026, Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment during a House Judiciary deposition but offered testimony clearing Trump of Epstein-related wrongdoing in exchange for clemency, prompting an explicit White House denial that no such consideration was underway. Her appeals exhausted after Supreme Court rejection in October 2025, Senate resolutions opposing leniency, and victim family pleas amplify political risks, as Trump's pardons have targeted January 6 defendants, anti-abortion activists, and financial offenders instead. Late-term shifts remain possible amid ongoing Epstein file releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$539,331Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against President Trump issuing a pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026, driven by over 15 months of White House inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her legal team's persistent appeals. In February 2026, Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment during a House Judiciary deposition but offered testimony clearing Trump of Epstein-related wrongdoing in exchange for clemency, prompting an explicit White House denial that no such consideration was underway. Her appeals exhausted after Supreme Court rejection in October 2025, Senate resolutions opposing leniency, and victim family pleas amplify political risks, as Trump's pardons have targeted January 6 defendants, anti-abortion activists, and financial offenders instead. Late-term shifts remain possible amid ongoing Epstein file releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$539,331Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against President Trump issuing a pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026, driven by over 15 months of White House inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her legal team's persistent appeals. In February 2026, Maxwell invoked the Fifth Amendment during a House Judiciary deposition but offered testimony clearing Trump of Epstein-related wrongdoing in exchange for clemency, prompting an explicit White House denial that no such consideration was underway. Her appeals exhausted after Supreme Court rejection in October 2025, Senate resolutions opposing leniency, and victim family pleas amplify political risks, as Trump's pardons have targeted January 6 defendants, anti-abortion activists, and financial offenders instead. Late-term shifts remain possible amid ongoing Epstein file releases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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