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2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

Market icon

2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

5月 10

5月 10

観測史上3番目に暑い 66%

2番目の高温 16%

4番目以内 9%

観測史上1位の暑さ 3.1%

Polymarket

$71,478 Vol.

観測史上3番目に暑い 66%

2番目の高温 16%

4番目以内 9%

観測史上1位の暑さ 3.1%

Polymarket

$71,478 Vol.

観測史上1位の暑さ

$7,377 Vol.

3%

2番目の高温

$21,077 Vol.

16%

観測史上3番目に暑い

$14,677 Vol.

66%

4番目以内

$28,346 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$71,478
終了日
2026/05/10
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$71,478
終了日
2026/05/10
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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よくある質問

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「観測史上3番目に暑い」で66%、次いで「2番目の高温」が16%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、66¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に66%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」は$71.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 24, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「観測史上3番目に暑い」で66%であり、市場がこの結果に66%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2番目の高温」で16%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。