Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in the count of major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—from April 12-18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3 to 8+ outcomes amid low forecasted solar activity. Recent SWPC 27-day outlooks project modest 10.7 cm radio flux near 120 sfu and low geomagnetic A-indices, signaling slim odds for multiple strong events following early April's G1-G2 storms from a glancing CME. Differentiation hinges on active sunspot regions' unpredictable flare potential, where R3 blackouts from X-class flares are most probable (historical solar maximum rates ~1-2/week), while Earth-directed CMEs for G3+ remain unlikely without new coronagraph observations. Daily SWPC updates and GOES X-ray monitoring will refine probabilities as the week unfolds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
8+ 49%
<3 48%
3 43%
7 42%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
<3
48%
3
43%
4
41%
5
42%
6
41%
7
42%
8+
49%
8+ 49%
<3 48%
3 43%
7 42%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
<3
$0 Vol.
48%
3
$264 Vol.
43%
4
$3,002 Vol.
41%
5
$0 Vol.
42%
6
$0 Vol.
41%
7
$0 Vol.
42%
8+
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in the count of major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—from April 12-18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3 to 8+ outcomes amid low forecasted solar activity. Recent SWPC 27-day outlooks project modest 10.7 cm radio flux near 120 sfu and low geomagnetic A-indices, signaling slim odds for multiple strong events following early April's G1-G2 storms from a glancing CME. Differentiation hinges on active sunspot regions' unpredictable flare potential, where R3 blackouts from X-class flares are most probable (historical solar maximum rates ~1-2/week), while Earth-directed CMEs for G3+ remain unlikely without new coronagraph observations. Daily SWPC updates and GOES X-ray monitoring will refine probabilities as the week unfolds.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
マーケット開始日： Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
音量
$3,266終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in the count of major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—from April 12-18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3 to 8+ outcomes amid low forecasted solar activity. Recent SWPC 27-day outlooks project modest 10.7 cm radio flux near 120 sfu and low geomagnetic A-indices, signaling slim odds for multiple strong events following early April's G1-G2 storms from a glancing CME. Differentiation hinges on active sunspot regions' unpredictable flare potential, where R3 blackouts from X-class flares are most probable (historical solar maximum rates ~1-2/week), while Earth-directed CMEs for G3+ remain unlikely without new coronagraph observations. Daily SWPC updates and GOES X-ray monitoring will refine probabilities as the week unfolds.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
音量
$3,266終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in the count of major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—from April 12-18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3 to 8+ outcomes amid low forecasted solar activity. Recent SWPC 27-day outlooks project modest 10.7 cm radio flux near 120 sfu and low geomagnetic A-indices, signaling slim odds for multiple strong events following early April's G1-G2 storms from a glancing CME. Differentiation hinges on active sunspot regions' unpredictable flare potential, where R3 blackouts from X-class flares are most probable (historical solar maximum rates ~1-2/week), while Earth-directed CMEs for G3+ remain unlikely without new coronagraph observations. Daily SWPC updates and GOES X-ray monitoring will refine probabilities as the week unfolds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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