Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 34°C (36.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) for Lagos's highest temperature on April 12, reflecting NiMet's 2026 seasonal forecast of above-normal daytime temperatures amid the early rainy season transition, with recent bulletins indicating partly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms over southern Nigeria including Lagos. This genuine uncertainty stems from variable afternoon convection and sea breeze strength, which can moderate peaks by 1°C; clearer intervals favor 35°C, while increased cloud cover tilts toward 33-34°C, consistent with April historical averages near 32-33°C but warmer this year. Official measurements from Ikeja airport will resolve, with NiMet's next outlook expected soon providing updated model guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4月12日のラゴスの最高気温は?
4月12日のラゴスの最高気温は?
35°C 33%
34°C 23%
33℃ 16%
32°C 12%
27°C以下
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
5%
32°C
12%
33℃
33%
34°C
37%
35°C
33%
36°C
7%
37°C以上
1%
35°C 33%
34°C 23%
33℃ 16%
32°C 12%
27°C以下
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
5%
32°C
12%
33℃
33%
34°C
37%
35°C
33%
36°C
7%
37°C以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 34°C (36.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) for Lagos's highest temperature on April 12, reflecting NiMet's 2026 seasonal forecast of above-normal daytime temperatures amid the early rainy season transition, with recent bulletins indicating partly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms over southern Nigeria including Lagos. This genuine uncertainty stems from variable afternoon convection and sea breeze strength, which can moderate peaks by 1°C; clearer intervals favor 35°C, while increased cloud cover tilts toward 33-34°C, consistent with April historical averages near 32-33°C but warmer this year. Official measurements from Ikeja airport will resolve, with NiMet's next outlook expected soon providing updated model guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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