Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Lagos reaching 38°C or higher on April 13, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures and prolonged dry spells early in the rainy season, despite recent daily outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms over Lagos moderating highs to around 32–34°C. AccuWeather ensemble forecasts align with historical April averages of 32°C daily highs (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), but high humidity amplifies RealFeel temperatures to 37–43°C under partial sun, creating upside risk for official airport measurements if cloud cover clears. Recent cloudy, rainy patterns through April 10 have kept monthly means 1.9°C below normal at 27°C, heightening uncertainty; watch NiMet's April 12 update and GFS/ECMWF runs for shifts in insolation and steering winds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Lagos on April 13?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 13?
29°C 21%
32°C 21%
31°C 21%
33°C 21%
新規
新規
2026/04/13
28°C or below
6%
29°C
21%
30°C
19%
31°C
21%
32°C
21%
33°C
21%
34°C
21%
35°C
20%
36°C
19%
37°C
11%
38°C or higher
9%
29°C 21%
32°C 21%
31°C 21%
33°C 21%
新規
新規
2026/04/13
28°C or below
$23 Vol.
6%
29°C
$2 Vol.
21%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
21%
32°C
$0 Vol.
21%
33°C
$0 Vol.
21%
34°C
$0 Vol.
21%
35°C
$0 Vol.
20%
36°C
$0 Vol.
19%
37°C
$0 Vol.
11%
38°C or higher
$71 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Lagos reaching 38°C or higher on April 13, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures and prolonged dry spells early in the rainy season, despite recent daily outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms over Lagos moderating highs to around 32–34°C. AccuWeather ensemble forecasts align with historical April averages of 32°C daily highs (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), but high humidity amplifies RealFeel temperatures to 37–43°C under partial sun, creating upside risk for official airport measurements if cloud cover clears. Recent cloudy, rainy patterns through April 10 have kept monthly means 1.9°C below normal at 27°C, heightening uncertainty; watch NiMet's April 12 update and GFS/ECMWF runs for shifts in insolation and steering winds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
音量
$97終了日
2026/04/13マーケット開始日
Apr 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Lagos reaching 38°C or higher on April 13, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures and prolonged dry spells early in the rainy season, despite recent daily outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms over Lagos moderating highs to around 32–34°C. AccuWeather ensemble forecasts align with historical April averages of 32°C daily highs (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), but high humidity amplifies RealFeel temperatures to 37–43°C under partial sun, creating upside risk for official airport measurements if cloud cover clears. Recent cloudy, rainy patterns through April 10 have kept monthly means 1.9°C below normal at 27°C, heightening uncertainty; watch NiMet's April 12 update and GFS/ECMWF runs for shifts in insolation and steering winds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$97終了日
2026/04/13マーケット開始日
Apr 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Lagos reaching 38°C or higher on April 13, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures and prolonged dry spells early in the rainy season, despite recent daily outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms over Lagos moderating highs to around 32–34°C. AccuWeather ensemble forecasts align with historical April averages of 32°C daily highs (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), but high humidity amplifies RealFeel temperatures to 37–43°C under partial sun, creating upside risk for official airport measurements if cloud cover clears. Recent cloudy, rainy patterns through April 10 have kept monthly means 1.9°C below normal at 27°C, heightening uncertainty; watch NiMet's April 12 update and GFS/ECMWF runs for shifts in insolation and steering winds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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