California's 12th congressional district, centered in the San Francisco Bay Area, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered an 85 percent share for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon faces only fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the June 2 top-two primary, with no Republican candidates advancing to the general election on November 3. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus on a Democratic hold therefore reflects the absence of competitive opposition and structural partisan alignment. A Republican outcome would require either a major local scandal depressing Democratic participation or an unprecedented national realignment strong enough to overcome the seat's baseline margin before the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,050 Vol.
$34,050 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$34,050 Vol.
$34,050 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$20,437 Vol.
94%
共和党
$13,612 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, centered in the San Francisco Bay Area, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered an 85 percent share for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon faces only fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the June 2 top-two primary, with no Republican candidates advancing to the general election on November 3. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus on a Democratic hold therefore reflects the absence of competitive opposition and structural partisan alignment. A Republican outcome would require either a major local scandal depressing Democratic participation or an unprecedented national realignment strong enough to overcome the seat's baseline margin before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$34,050終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, centered in the San Francisco Bay Area, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered an 85 percent share for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon faces only fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the June 2 top-two primary, with no Republican candidates advancing to the general election on November 3. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus on a Democratic hold therefore reflects the absence of competitive opposition and structural partisan alignment. A Republican outcome would require either a major local scandal depressing Democratic participation or an unprecedented national realignment strong enough to overcome the seat's baseline margin before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,050終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district, centered in the San Francisco Bay Area, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 and delivered an 85 percent share for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon faces only fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the June 2 top-two primary, with no Republican candidates advancing to the general election on November 3. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus on a Democratic hold therefore reflects the absence of competitive opposition and structural partisan alignment. A Republican outcome would require either a major local scandal depressing Democratic participation or an unprecedented national realignment strong enough to overcome the seat's baseline margin before the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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