California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in recent presidential and House elections. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces limited primary opposition on June 2, 2026, from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce and a Republican write-in candidate, with no competitive general election challenger emerging. This structural advantage, reinforced by the top-two primary system and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats, underpins trader consensus on the party outcome. Scenarios that could shift probabilities remain narrow and would require significant late-cycle developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate withdrawal before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$23,142 Vol.
95%
共和党
$14,212 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in recent presidential and House elections. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces limited primary opposition on June 2, 2026, from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce and a Republican write-in candidate, with no competitive general election challenger emerging. This structural advantage, reinforced by the top-two primary system and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats, underpins trader consensus on the party outcome. Scenarios that could shift probabilities remain narrow and would require significant late-cycle developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate withdrawal before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$37,355終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in recent presidential and House elections. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces limited primary opposition on June 2, 2026, from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce and a Republican write-in candidate, with no competitive general election challenger emerging. This structural advantage, reinforced by the top-two primary system and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats, underpins trader consensus on the party outcome. Scenarios that could shift probabilities remain narrow and would require significant late-cycle developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate withdrawal before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$37,355終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in recent presidential and House elections. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces limited primary opposition on June 2, 2026, from fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce and a Republican write-in candidate, with no competitive general election challenger emerging. This structural advantage, reinforced by the top-two primary system and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats, underpins trader consensus on the party outcome. Scenarios that could shift probabilities remain narrow and would require significant late-cycle developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate withdrawal before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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