Lateefah Simon secured the Democratic nomination in California's June 2 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general in a district where Democrats hold roughly 64 percent of registered voters and Republicans just 7 percent. This outcome, combined with the absence of a viable Republican candidate in the top-two primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Historical patterns in this solidly Democratic San Francisco-area seat show consistent double-digit margins for the party. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal in the months ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$40,920 Vol.
$40,920 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$40,920 Vol.
$40,920 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$24,042 Vol.
95%
共和党
$16,878 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lateefah Simon secured the Democratic nomination in California's June 2 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general in a district where Democrats hold roughly 64 percent of registered voters and Republicans just 7 percent. This outcome, combined with the absence of a viable Republican candidate in the top-two primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Historical patterns in this solidly Democratic San Francisco-area seat show consistent double-digit margins for the party. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal in the months ahead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$40,920終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lateefah Simon secured the Democratic nomination in California's June 2 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general in a district where Democrats hold roughly 64 percent of registered voters and Republicans just 7 percent. This outcome, combined with the absence of a viable Republican candidate in the top-two primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Historical patterns in this solidly Democratic San Francisco-area seat show consistent double-digit margins for the party. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal in the months ahead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$40,920終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lateefah Simon secured the Democratic nomination in California's June 2 primary with over 80 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, advancing both to the November general in a district where Democrats hold roughly 64 percent of registered voters and Republicans just 7 percent. This outcome, combined with the absence of a viable Republican candidate in the top-two primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Historical patterns in this solidly Democratic San Francisco-area seat show consistent double-digit margins for the party. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal in the months ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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