Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き 71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 27%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$1,020,405 Vol.
$1,020,405 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
3%
据え置き
71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
27%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
1%
据え置き 71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 27%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$1,020,405 Vol.
$1,020,405 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$174,024 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$361,288 Vol.
3%
据え置き
$187,016 Vol.
71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$178,671 Vol.
27%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$119,406 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$1,020,405終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$1,020,405終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, maintained through the July decision, reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach after hawkish June projections showed more officials favoring hikes. Trader consensus assigns a 26.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, driven by sticky price pressures and limited evidence of disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could shift implied odds ahead of October.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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