Trader consensus favors a high of 13°C in Ankara on March 26 (33.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on daytime peaks of 12–14°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia. Recent developments include a cooling trend from northerly winds carrying continental polar air, tempering earlier warmer outlooks, with Turkish State Meteorological Service forecasts aligning closely. Key variables influencing outcomes include cloud cover variability (potentially capping highs at 12°C if persistent), afternoon insolation boosting to 14–15°C under clearer skies, and minimal urban heat effects on the city's plateau elevation. Historical late-March averages hover near 13°C, underscoring the tight distribution and model uncertainty as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
13°C 34%
14°C 25%
12°C 21%
11°C 12%
$10,300 Vol.
$10,300 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
21%
13°C
34%
14°C
25%
15°C
7%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 34%
14°C 25%
12°C 21%
11°C 12%
$10,300 Vol.
$10,300 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
21%
13°C
34%
14°C
25%
15°C
7%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 13°C in Ankara on March 26 (33.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on daytime peaks of 12–14°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia. Recent developments include a cooling trend from northerly winds carrying continental polar air, tempering earlier warmer outlooks, with Turkish State Meteorological Service forecasts aligning closely. Key variables influencing outcomes include cloud cover variability (potentially capping highs at 12°C if persistent), afternoon insolation boosting to 14–15°C under clearer skies, and minimal urban heat effects on the city's plateau elevation. Historical late-March averages hover near 13°C, underscoring the tight distribution and model uncertainty as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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