Trader consensus on Austin's March 24 high temperature reflects profound forecast uncertainty, with ensemble models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF spreading predictions across the 80s to low 90s due to conflicting upper-air patterns—a potential ridge amplification versus trough influence from the jet stream. Recent 00Z runs show GFS leaning warmer (88-92°F) amid high pressure building over Texas, while Euro ensembles favor moderation around 82-86°F from lingering cool air advection; climatological March 24 averages hover near 78°F, but El Niño fade boosts warm outliers. Key differentiator: ridge axis position, with traders eyeing afternoon 12Z updates for resolution amid low-confidence 500mb height forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
84-85°F 26%
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 26%
82-83°F 26%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
26%
90-91°F
26%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
26%
98°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 26%
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 26%
82-83°F 26%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
26%
90-91°F
26%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
26%
98°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Austin's March 24 high temperature reflects profound forecast uncertainty, with ensemble models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF spreading predictions across the 80s to low 90s due to conflicting upper-air patterns—a potential ridge amplification versus trough influence from the jet stream. Recent 00Z runs show GFS leaning warmer (88-92°F) amid high pressure building over Texas, while Euro ensembles favor moderation around 82-86°F from lingering cool air advection; climatological March 24 averages hover near 78°F, but El Niño fade boosts warm outliers. Key differentiator: ridge axis position, with traders eyeing afternoon 12Z updates for resolution amid low-confidence 500mb height forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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