Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS, alongside forecasts from Turkey's State Meteorological Service, point to a daytime high of 12°C in Ankara on March 22, driving its 36.5% implied probability as the leading outcome. Recent observations show overnight lows around 5-7°C stabilizing after a passing cool front, with light winds and partial cloud cover limiting warming—aligning with March climatology where historical highs average 11-13°C. Trader consensus reflects this convergence, downweighting warmer 14°C+ scenarios (under 5%) amid low-confidence upper-air ridging, while 11°C at 26.5% captures model spread uncertainty; monitor afternoon soundings for final resolution tweaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
12°C 37%
11°C 28%
13°C 18%
10°C 11%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
28%
12°C
37%
13°C
18%
14°C
3%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
1%
12°C 37%
11°C 28%
13°C 18%
10°C 11%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
28%
12°C
37%
13°C
18%
14°C
3%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS, alongside forecasts from Turkey's State Meteorological Service, point to a daytime high of 12°C in Ankara on March 22, driving its 36.5% implied probability as the leading outcome. Recent observations show overnight lows around 5-7°C stabilizing after a passing cool front, with light winds and partial cloud cover limiting warming—aligning with March climatology where historical highs average 11-13°C. Trader consensus reflects this convergence, downweighting warmer 14°C+ scenarios (under 5%) amid low-confidence upper-air ridging, while 11°C at 26.5% captures model spread uncertainty; monitor afternoon soundings for final resolution tweaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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