Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 12°C high in Ankara on March 23 (29% implied probability), edging out 11°C (25.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 11-13°C under a building high-pressure ridge over Anatolia. This mild continental airflow, following recent cooler spells, differentiates leading outcomes from sub-10°C bets (collectively ~40%), as models show low precipitation risk and diurnal warming potential up to 2°C above morning lows near 5°C. Historical March 23 averages hover around 13°C at Esenboğa Airport, but spring variability—tied to jet stream waviness—keeps 14°C+ odds at just 10%, with final resolution hinging on official Turkish MGM observations amid typical 1-2°C model spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
12°C 29%
11°C 23%
13°C 15%
10°C 13%
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
6%
8°C
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
13%
11°C
26%
12°C
29%
13°C
15%
14°C or higher
10%
12°C 29%
11°C 23%
13°C 15%
10°C 13%
4°C or below
1%
5°C
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
6%
8°C
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
13%
11°C
26%
12°C
29%
13°C
15%
14°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 12°C high in Ankara on March 23 (29% implied probability), edging out 11°C (25.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 11-13°C under a building high-pressure ridge over Anatolia. This mild continental airflow, following recent cooler spells, differentiates leading outcomes from sub-10°C bets (collectively ~40%), as models show low precipitation risk and diurnal warming potential up to 2°C above morning lows near 5°C. Historical March 23 averages hover around 13°C at Esenboğa Airport, but spring variability—tied to jet stream waviness—keeps 14°C+ odds at just 10%, with final resolution hinging on official Turkish MGM observations amid typical 1-2°C model spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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