Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17-19°C for Madrid's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 18°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia, funneling mild Azores highs inland. Recent model updates show a subtle warming bias from enhanced southerly air advection, elevating 18°C odds over 17°C, while lingering Atlantic moisture risks capping peaks at 19°C via increased cloud cover and boundary-layer stability. Historical March 28 highs average 17.2°C (AEMET data), but low ensemble spread—under 2°C—signals high confidence in this narrow band, with outliers like 20°C+ hinging on unforeseen subsidence strengthening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月28日のマドリードの最高気温は?
3月28日のマドリードの最高気温は?
18℃ 29%
17℃ 24%
19℃ 22%
20℃ 19%
13°C以下
2%
14℃
11%
15°C
14%
16℃
18%
17℃
24%
18℃
29%
19℃
22%
20℃
19%
21°C
18%
22℃
16%
23°C以上
2%
18℃ 29%
17℃ 24%
19℃ 22%
20℃ 19%
13°C以下
2%
14℃
11%
15°C
14%
16℃
18%
17℃
24%
18℃
29%
19℃
22%
20℃
19%
21°C
18%
22℃
16%
23°C以上
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17-19°C for Madrid's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 18°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia, funneling mild Azores highs inland. Recent model updates show a subtle warming bias from enhanced southerly air advection, elevating 18°C odds over 17°C, while lingering Atlantic moisture risks capping peaks at 19°C via increased cloud cover and boundary-layer stability. Historical March 28 highs average 17.2°C (AEMET data), but low ensemble spread—under 2°C—signals high confidence in this narrow band, with outliers like 20°C+ hinging on unforeseen subsidence strengthening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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