Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 14°C (32.5%) for Paris on March 22, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on mid-teens Celsius amid a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Météo-France's latest guidance projects 13-15°C, with subtle differentiators like variable low-level cloud cover potentially capping solar insolation at 16°C or allowing clearer skies to push toward 15-16°C under southerly winds advecting warmer maritime air. Historical March norms hover around 12-13°C, but urban heat island effects in Paris often add 1-2°C; divergence arises from model sensitivity to frontal timing, with 24-hour updates expected to sharpen odds before official Météo-France observations resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Paris on March 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 22?
14°C 30%
15°C 26%
16°C 23%
13°C 15%
$14,138 Vol.
$14,138 Vol.
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
30%
15°C
26%
16°C
23%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 30%
15°C 26%
16°C 23%
13°C 15%
$14,138 Vol.
$14,138 Vol.
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
30%
15°C
26%
16°C
23%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 14°C (32.5%) for Paris on March 22, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on mid-teens Celsius amid a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Météo-France's latest guidance projects 13-15°C, with subtle differentiators like variable low-level cloud cover potentially capping solar insolation at 16°C or allowing clearer skies to push toward 15-16°C under southerly winds advecting warmer maritime air. Historical March norms hover around 12-13°C, but urban heat island effects in Paris often add 1-2°C; divergence arises from model sensitivity to frontal timing, with 24-hour updates expected to sharpen odds before official Météo-France observations resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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