Trader consensus shows high uncertainty for San Francisco's September 19 high, with three consecutive bins from 72–77°F each at 19.5% implied probability. Short-range National Weather Service and NOAA model runs exhibit spread due to variable marine-layer depth, sea-breeze strength, and potential clearing of coastal stratus. Late-September climatology favors moderation from cold Pacific upwelling and prevailing onshore flow, yet subtle shifts in 500-hPa heights or diurnal heating can add or subtract several degrees. Forecasters note typical forecast error of 2–4°F at this lead time, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equiprobable until the next model cycle or observational update tightens guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月19日のサンフランシスコの最高気温は？
9月19日のサンフランシスコの最高気温は？
70～71°F 24%
華氏74～75度 22%
76～77°F 19%
68～69°F 19%
新規
新規
2026/09/19
65°F以下
5%
66-67°F
7%
68～69°F
19%
70～71°F
24%
72～73°F
17%
華氏74～75度
22%
76～77°F
19%
78～79°F
14%
80〜81°F
9%
82〜83°F
6%
華氏84度以上
5%
70～71°F 24%
華氏74～75度 22%
76～77°F 19%
68～69°F 19%
新規
新規
2026/09/19
65°F以下
$0 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
7%
68～69°F
$34 Vol.
19%
70～71°F
$3 Vol.
24%
72～73°F
$0 Vol.
17%
華氏74～75度
$0 Vol.
22%
76～77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78～79°F
$0 Vol.
14%
80〜81°F
$0 Vol.
9%
82〜83°F
$0 Vol.
6%
華氏84度以上
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows high uncertainty for San Francisco's September 19 high, with three consecutive bins from 72–77°F each at 19.5% implied probability. Short-range National Weather Service and NOAA model runs exhibit spread due to variable marine-layer depth, sea-breeze strength, and potential clearing of coastal stratus. Late-September climatology favors moderation from cold Pacific upwelling and prevailing onshore flow, yet subtle shifts in 500-hPa heights or diurnal heating can add or subtract several degrees. Forecasters note typical forecast error of 2–4°F at this lead time, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equiprobable until the next model cycle or observational update tightens guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 17, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
音量
$38終了日
2026/09/19マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows high uncertainty for San Francisco's September 19 high, with three consecutive bins from 72–77°F each at 19.5% implied probability. Short-range National Weather Service and NOAA model runs exhibit spread due to variable marine-layer depth, sea-breeze strength, and potential clearing of coastal stratus. Late-September climatology favors moderation from cold Pacific upwelling and prevailing onshore flow, yet subtle shifts in 500-hPa heights or diurnal heating can add or subtract several degrees. Forecasters note typical forecast error of 2–4°F at this lead time, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equiprobable until the next model cycle or observational update tightens guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$38終了日
2026/09/19マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 7:56 AM ETTrader consensus shows high uncertainty for San Francisco's September 19 high, with three consecutive bins from 72–77°F each at 19.5% implied probability. Short-range National Weather Service and NOAA model runs exhibit spread due to variable marine-layer depth, sea-breeze strength, and potential clearing of coastal stratus. Late-September climatology favors moderation from cold Pacific upwelling and prevailing onshore flow, yet subtle shifts in 500-hPa heights or diurnal heating can add or subtract several degrees. Forecasters note typical forecast error of 2–4°F at this lead time, keeping adjacent outcomes nearly equiprobable until the next model cycle or observational update tightens guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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