Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月22日の週に、D 4 （異常な干ばつ）になる州はいくつありますか？
2026年9月22日の週に、D 4 （異常な干ばつ）になる州はいくつありますか？
10州以上 94%
7〜9州 5%
1～2州 3.0%
3〜4州 3.0%
新規
新規
2026/09/24
0州
1%
1～2州
3%
3〜4州
3%
5～6州
3%
7〜9州
5%
10州以上
94%
10州以上 94%
7〜9州 5%
1～2州 3.0%
3〜4州 3.0%
新規
新規
2026/09/24
0州
$25 Vol.
1%
1～2州
$0 Vol.
3%
3〜4州
$0 Vol.
3%
5～6州
$0 Vol.
3%
7〜9州
$0 Vol.
5%
10州以上
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
マーケット開始日： Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
音量
$25終了日
2026/09/24マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
音量
$25終了日
2026/09/24マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETRecent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問