Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 26°C high in Taipei on March 22 (27% implied probability), driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest ensemble forecasts showing mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover capping peaks amid seasonal spring norms of 23-25°C. Differentiating the tight race with 28°C (22.5%), 25°C and 27°C (both 19%), subtle model divergences emerge: ECMWF leans warmer via stronger solar insolation forecasts, while GFS implies slight cooling from residual northeasterly winds, with urban heat island effects potentially nudging observations up 1-2°C. Historical March 22 data averages 24.5°C, but low-pressure troughs add uncertainty, keeping lower outcomes viable at diminishing odds. Key watch: afternoon hourly updates from Taipei station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
26°C 28%
27°C 27%
28°C 22%
25°C 15%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
11%
25°C
20%
26°C
28%
27°C
22%
28°C
22%
29°C or higher
12%
26°C 28%
27°C 27%
28°C 22%
25°C 15%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
11%
25°C
20%
26°C
28%
27°C
22%
28°C
22%
29°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
This market will resolve to the degree indicated in its title (e.g., if a market's title indicates it will resolve to "Yes" if 21°C is the highest temperature on a given day, all temperatures within the range 21.0-21.9°C [inclusive] will qualify).
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 26°C high in Taipei on March 22 (27% implied probability), driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest ensemble forecasts showing mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover capping peaks amid seasonal spring norms of 23-25°C. Differentiating the tight race with 28°C (22.5%), 25°C and 27°C (both 19%), subtle model divergences emerge: ECMWF leans warmer via stronger solar insolation forecasts, while GFS implies slight cooling from residual northeasterly winds, with urban heat island effects potentially nudging observations up 1-2°C. Historical March 22 data averages 24.5°C, but low-pressure troughs add uncertainty, keeping lower outcomes viable at diminishing odds. Key watch: afternoon hourly updates from Taipei station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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