Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport, as tracked by IMGW and reported via platforms like TimeandDate, confirm a peak temperature of 25°C (77°F) around 4:00 p.m. on May 2 under mostly sunny skies and light winds, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns precisely with ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecast models projecting daytime maxima of 24–26°C amid a stable high-pressure system over central Poland—well above the early May climatological average of 19°C. Such model agreement and real-time METAR data minimize uncertainty, though rare scenarios like unexpected convective clearing or slight positive temperature bias in afternoon hours could theoretically nudge readings to 26°C before data finalization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 2?
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$77,462 Vol.
$77,462 Vol.
2026/05/02
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$77,462 Vol.
$77,462 Vol.
2026/05/02
18°C or below
$5,304 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,825 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,754 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,236 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,252 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,359 Vol.
No
24°C
$11,640 Vol.
No
25°C
$11,130 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$9,532 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,767 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$7,664 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport, as tracked by IMGW and reported via platforms like TimeandDate, confirm a peak temperature of 25°C (77°F) around 4:00 p.m. on May 2 under mostly sunny skies and light winds, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns precisely with ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecast models projecting daytime maxima of 24–26°C amid a stable high-pressure system over central Poland—well above the early May climatological average of 19°C. Such model agreement and real-time METAR data minimize uncertainty, though rare scenarios like unexpected convective clearing or slight positive temperature bias in afternoon hours could theoretically nudge readings to 26°C before data finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
音量
$77,462終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport, as tracked by IMGW and reported via platforms like TimeandDate, confirm a peak temperature of 25°C (77°F) around 4:00 p.m. on May 2 under mostly sunny skies and light winds, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns precisely with ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecast models projecting daytime maxima of 24–26°C amid a stable high-pressure system over central Poland—well above the early May climatological average of 19°C. Such model agreement and real-time METAR data minimize uncertainty, though rare scenarios like unexpected convective clearing or slight positive temperature bias in afternoon hours could theoretically nudge readings to 26°C before data finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$77,462終了日
2026/05/02マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport, as tracked by IMGW and reported via platforms like TimeandDate, confirm a peak temperature of 25°C (77°F) around 4:00 p.m. on May 2 under mostly sunny skies and light winds, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns precisely with ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecast models projecting daytime maxima of 24–26°C amid a stable high-pressure system over central Poland—well above the early May climatological average of 19°C. Such model agreement and real-time METAR data minimize uncertainty, though rare scenarios like unexpected convective clearing or slight positive temperature bias in afternoon hours could theoretically nudge readings to 26°C before data finalization.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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