Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, driven by USGS seismic catalogs confirming none through April 16 amid historically low weekly averages of about 1.1 such events globally. The U.S. Geological Survey's moment magnitude (Mw) data shows moderate overall activity this week, highlighted by a M5.7 in Nevada on April 13 but no qualifying quakes, with no unusual swarms, foreshocks, or fault-line stress indicators elevating risks on major subduction zones or transform boundaries. Remaining days carry baseline Poisson-distributed uncertainty, but traders anticipate continuation of the quiet pattern; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through Sunday's close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4月13日～ 19日に6.5以上の地震は何回ありますか？
4月13日～ 19日に6.5以上の地震は何回ありますか？
0 67%
1 24%
2 6%
3 1.4%
$37,136 Vol.
$37,136 Vol.
2026/04/19
0
67%
1
24%
2
6%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
5超
1%
0 67%
1 24%
2 6%
3 1.4%
$37,136 Vol.
$37,136 Vol.
2026/04/19
0
$11,548 Vol.
67%
1
$7,386 Vol.
24%
2
$5,008 Vol.
6%
3
$2,266 Vol.
1%
4
$6,725 Vol.
<1%
5
$2,248 Vol.
<1%
5超
$3,025 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, driven by USGS seismic catalogs confirming none through April 16 amid historically low weekly averages of about 1.1 such events globally. The U.S. Geological Survey's moment magnitude (Mw) data shows moderate overall activity this week, highlighted by a M5.7 in Nevada on April 13 but no qualifying quakes, with no unusual swarms, foreshocks, or fault-line stress indicators elevating risks on major subduction zones or transform boundaries. Remaining days carry baseline Poisson-distributed uncertainty, but traders anticipate continuation of the quiet pattern; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through Sunday's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$37,136終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, driven by USGS seismic catalogs confirming none through April 16 amid historically low weekly averages of about 1.1 such events globally. The U.S. Geological Survey's moment magnitude (Mw) data shows moderate overall activity this week, highlighted by a M5.7 in Nevada on April 13 but no qualifying quakes, with no unusual swarms, foreshocks, or fault-line stress indicators elevating risks on major subduction zones or transform boundaries. Remaining days carry baseline Poisson-distributed uncertainty, but traders anticipate continuation of the quiet pattern; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through Sunday's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$37,136終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, driven by USGS seismic catalogs confirming none through April 16 amid historically low weekly averages of about 1.1 such events globally. The U.S. Geological Survey's moment magnitude (Mw) data shows moderate overall activity this week, highlighted by a M5.7 in Nevada on April 13 but no qualifying quakes, with no unusual swarms, foreshocks, or fault-line stress indicators elevating risks on major subduction zones or transform boundaries. Remaining days carry baseline Poisson-distributed uncertainty, but traders anticipate continuation of the quiet pattern; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through Sunday's close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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