Péter Magyar's Tisza Party clinched a decisive victory in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, capturing over 52% of the national list vote—widely interpreted as the popular vote—against Fidesz–KDNP's roughly 39%, with record turnout amplifying the shift. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, as projections confirmed Tisza's supermajority in the 199-seat National Assembly, ending his 16-year rule amid voter frustration over corruption and economic woes. Traders price Tisza at 99.7% implied probability, reflecting near-final tallies exceeding 98% counted and no credible disputes. Only extraordinary developments like successful legal challenges, widespread recounts, or procedural anomalies could shift resolution, though margins make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ティサ 99.6%
フィデス＝KDNP <1%
その他 <1%
$1,818,359 Vol.
$1,818,359 Vol.
2026/04/12
フィデス＝KDNP
<1%
ティサ
100%
その他
<1%
ティサ 99.6%
フィデス＝KDNP <1%
その他 <1%
$1,818,359 Vol.
$1,818,359 Vol.
2026/04/12
フィデス＝KDNP
$699,400 Vol.
<1%
ティサ
$798,918 Vol.
100%
その他
$320,040 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Péter Magyar's Tisza Party clinched a decisive victory in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, capturing over 52% of the national list vote—widely interpreted as the popular vote—against Fidesz–KDNP's roughly 39%, with record turnout amplifying the shift. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, as projections confirmed Tisza's supermajority in the 199-seat National Assembly, ending his 16-year rule amid voter frustration over corruption and economic woes. Traders price Tisza at 99.7% implied probability, reflecting near-final tallies exceeding 98% counted and no credible disputes. Only extraordinary developments like successful legal challenges, widespread recounts, or procedural anomalies could shift resolution, though margins make this improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
マーケット開始日： Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
音量
$1,818,359終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Péter Magyar's Tisza Party clinched a decisive victory in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, capturing over 52% of the national list vote—widely interpreted as the popular vote—against Fidesz–KDNP's roughly 39%, with record turnout amplifying the shift. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, as projections confirmed Tisza's supermajority in the 199-seat National Assembly, ending his 16-year rule amid voter frustration over corruption and economic woes. Traders price Tisza at 99.7% implied probability, reflecting near-final tallies exceeding 98% counted and no credible disputes. Only extraordinary developments like successful legal challenges, widespread recounts, or procedural anomalies could shift resolution, though margins make this improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
音量
$1,818,359終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Péter Magyar's Tisza Party clinched a decisive victory in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, capturing over 52% of the national list vote—widely interpreted as the popular vote—against Fidesz–KDNP's roughly 39%, with record turnout amplifying the shift. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, as projections confirmed Tisza's supermajority in the 199-seat National Assembly, ending his 16-year rule amid voter frustration over corruption and economic woes. Traders price Tisza at 99.7% implied probability, reflecting near-final tallies exceeding 98% counted and no credible disputes. Only extraordinary developments like successful legal challenges, widespread recounts, or procedural anomalies could shift resolution, though margins make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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