Factional rivalries within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader. Hardline lawmakers have publicly warned of a "soft coup" by wartime negotiators and reformist officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, citing disputed military appointments and truce terms with the United States. Recent August 2026 decrees reshuffled senior IRGC and Basij roles to strengthen internal security networks amid economic strain and lingering protests. Traders assign modest probabilities to a near-term attempt because regime loyalists control key institutions and have prioritized neighborhood-level monitoring, yet persistent elite infighting and post-conflict instability keep the market active. Upcoming leadership consolidations or renewed external pressures could shift assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,115,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
11%
$2,115,813 Vol.
12月31日
$74,587 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Factional rivalries within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader. Hardline lawmakers have publicly warned of a "soft coup" by wartime negotiators and reformist officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, citing disputed military appointments and truce terms with the United States. Recent August 2026 decrees reshuffled senior IRGC and Basij roles to strengthen internal security networks amid economic strain and lingering protests. Traders assign modest probabilities to a near-term attempt because regime loyalists control key institutions and have prioritized neighborhood-level monitoring, yet persistent elite infighting and post-conflict instability keep the market active. Upcoming leadership consolidations or renewed external pressures could shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
音量
$2,115,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Factional rivalries within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader. Hardline lawmakers have publicly warned of a "soft coup" by wartime negotiators and reformist officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, citing disputed military appointments and truce terms with the United States. Recent August 2026 decrees reshuffled senior IRGC and Basij roles to strengthen internal security networks amid economic strain and lingering protests. Traders assign modest probabilities to a near-term attempt because regime loyalists control key institutions and have prioritized neighborhood-level monitoring, yet persistent elite infighting and post-conflict instability keep the market active. Upcoming leadership consolidations or renewed external pressures could shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,115,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Factional rivalries within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader. Hardline lawmakers have publicly warned of a "soft coup" by wartime negotiators and reformist officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, citing disputed military appointments and truce terms with the United States. Recent August 2026 decrees reshuffled senior IRGC and Basij roles to strengthen internal security networks amid economic strain and lingering protests. Traders assign modest probabilities to a near-term attempt because regime loyalists control key institutions and have prioritized neighborhood-level monitoring, yet persistent elite infighting and post-conflict instability keep the market active. Upcoming leadership consolidations or renewed external pressures could shift assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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