Xi Jinping’s sustained purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including multiple Central Military Commission members through early 2026, have reinforced centralized party control and loyalty enforcement mechanisms that make coordinated challenges highly difficult. Extensive investigations for corruption and political disloyalty have removed potential rivals while preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional dominance and security apparatus. Credible reporting shows no verified coup attempts despite circulating rumors, consistent with historical patterns of elite stability under strongman rule. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against an attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers. Late shifts remain possible through Xi’s health developments, major policy failures prompting elite realignment, or external crises, though such outcomes face significant institutional hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$155,353 Vol.
$155,353 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$155,353 Vol.
$155,353 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including multiple Central Military Commission members through early 2026, have reinforced centralized party control and loyalty enforcement mechanisms that make coordinated challenges highly difficult. Extensive investigations for corruption and political disloyalty have removed potential rivals while preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional dominance and security apparatus. Credible reporting shows no verified coup attempts despite circulating rumors, consistent with historical patterns of elite stability under strongman rule. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against an attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers. Late shifts remain possible through Xi’s health developments, major policy failures prompting elite realignment, or external crises, though such outcomes face significant institutional hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$155,353終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including multiple Central Military Commission members through early 2026, have reinforced centralized party control and loyalty enforcement mechanisms that make coordinated challenges highly difficult. Extensive investigations for corruption and political disloyalty have removed potential rivals while preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional dominance and security apparatus. Credible reporting shows no verified coup attempts despite circulating rumors, consistent with historical patterns of elite stability under strongman rule. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against an attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers. Late shifts remain possible through Xi’s health developments, major policy failures prompting elite realignment, or external crises, though such outcomes face significant institutional hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$155,353終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including multiple Central Military Commission members through early 2026, have reinforced centralized party control and loyalty enforcement mechanisms that make coordinated challenges highly difficult. Extensive investigations for corruption and political disloyalty have removed potential rivals while preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional dominance and security apparatus. Credible reporting shows no verified coup attempts despite circulating rumors, consistent with historical patterns of elite stability under strongman rule. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against an attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers. Late shifts remain possible through Xi’s health developments, major policy failures prompting elite realignment, or external crises, though such outcomes face significant institutional hurdles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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