Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since 2022, including multiple Central Military Commission members in 2025-2026, have removed potential rivals and reinforced centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Recent months have seen continued emphasis on party discipline and loyalty checks rather than open challenges, with no verified military or elite actions indicating an imminent attempt. Trader consensus at 96.6% for no coup attempt reflects this pattern of preemptive consolidation in an opaque system where historical precedents favor incumbents who neutralize factions early. Plausible shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health issues, a major external crisis exposing internal fractures, or undetected factional coordination, though such developments lack supporting evidence at present.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$155,390 Vol.
$155,390 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$155,390 Vol.
$155,390 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since 2022, including multiple Central Military Commission members in 2025-2026, have removed potential rivals and reinforced centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Recent months have seen continued emphasis on party discipline and loyalty checks rather than open challenges, with no verified military or elite actions indicating an imminent attempt. Trader consensus at 96.6% for no coup attempt reflects this pattern of preemptive consolidation in an opaque system where historical precedents favor incumbents who neutralize factions early. Plausible shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health issues, a major external crisis exposing internal fractures, or undetected factional coordination, though such developments lack supporting evidence at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$155,390終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since 2022, including multiple Central Military Commission members in 2025-2026, have removed potential rivals and reinforced centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Recent months have seen continued emphasis on party discipline and loyalty checks rather than open challenges, with no verified military or elite actions indicating an imminent attempt. Trader consensus at 96.6% for no coup attempt reflects this pattern of preemptive consolidation in an opaque system where historical precedents favor incumbents who neutralize factions early. Plausible shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health issues, a major external crisis exposing internal fractures, or undetected factional coordination, though such developments lack supporting evidence at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$155,390終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since 2022, including multiple Central Military Commission members in 2025-2026, have removed potential rivals and reinforced centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Recent months have seen continued emphasis on party discipline and loyalty checks rather than open challenges, with no verified military or elite actions indicating an imminent attempt. Trader consensus at 96.6% for no coup attempt reflects this pattern of preemptive consolidation in an opaque system where historical precedents favor incumbents who neutralize factions early. Plausible shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health issues, a major external crisis exposing internal fractures, or undetected factional coordination, though such developments lack supporting evidence at present.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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