Putin’s centralized control through the FSB, Federal Protective Service, and loyal elites has prevented any organized challenge from materializing in 2026 despite mounting pressures. Economic strain from Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and war-related mobilization fatigue have lowered public trust to multi-year lows and raised perceptions of political tension in independent polls. Recent Kremlin measures—including expanded asset seizure powers and intensified security protocols around the president—underscore efforts to neutralize internal risks, while FSB operations have focused on external plots rather than elite dissent. Traders assess these structural barriers, combined with the absence of verifiable coup signals through late August, as sufficient to sustain the 94.5% implied probability against an attempt before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6% 確率
$128,143 Vol.
$128,143 Vol.
2026/12/31
6% 確率
$128,143 Vol.
$128,143 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s centralized control through the FSB, Federal Protective Service, and loyal elites has prevented any organized challenge from materializing in 2026 despite mounting pressures. Economic strain from Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and war-related mobilization fatigue have lowered public trust to multi-year lows and raised perceptions of political tension in independent polls. Recent Kremlin measures—including expanded asset seizure powers and intensified security protocols around the president—underscore efforts to neutralize internal risks, while FSB operations have focused on external plots rather than elite dissent. Traders assess these structural barriers, combined with the absence of verifiable coup signals through late August, as sufficient to sustain the 94.5% implied probability against an attempt before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$128,143終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s centralized control through the FSB, Federal Protective Service, and loyal elites has prevented any organized challenge from materializing in 2026 despite mounting pressures. Economic strain from Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and war-related mobilization fatigue have lowered public trust to multi-year lows and raised perceptions of political tension in independent polls. Recent Kremlin measures—including expanded asset seizure powers and intensified security protocols around the president—underscore efforts to neutralize internal risks, while FSB operations have focused on external plots rather than elite dissent. Traders assess these structural barriers, combined with the absence of verifiable coup signals through late August, as sufficient to sustain the 94.5% implied probability against an attempt before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$128,143終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Putin’s centralized control through the FSB, Federal Protective Service, and loyal elites has prevented any organized challenge from materializing in 2026 despite mounting pressures. Economic strain from Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and war-related mobilization fatigue have lowered public trust to multi-year lows and raised perceptions of political tension in independent polls. Recent Kremlin measures—including expanded asset seizure powers and intensified security protocols around the president—underscore efforts to neutralize internal risks, while FSB operations have focused on external plots rather than elite dissent. Traders assess these structural barriers, combined with the absence of verifiable coup signals through late August, as sufficient to sustain the 94.5% implied probability against an attempt before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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